![]() ![]() Another paper published in November 2020 analyzed the predictive capacity of Google Trends in four presidential elections in the United States and the five presidential elections in Canada beginning 2004. These preferences however were influenced by various social events which should be filtered out as noise for better estimation of the results. Specific case studies on the elections in Germany purportedly showed strong correlation between the Google search preferences of users and the actual election results. Hence the main question, “Can Google Trends volume predict the outcome of elections, or is it merely coincidence?” We know that there is a big difference between the demographics of voters and the people who use web tools like Google. This is taken from all web searches in the recent week in the Philippines on all categories. For example, if we use the surnames only of the top five candidates in the coming Philippine presidential elections, we get as of this writing the following rather different result contrary to what others have shown: Marcos (53), Robredo (23), Pacquiao (5), Moreno (6) and Lacson (4). Google Trends is also very specific on the terms or topics being searched for comparison. Using the graph, it is quite tricky and oftentimes misleading when we compare search trends between multiple keywords. Thus, a downward trend on the graph means that a search term’s relative popularity is decreasing, but it does not mean that the total number of searches for that term is decreasing. It takes a small sample of the absolute search volume then normalizes the data on a scale from 0 to 100 where each point is divided by the highest point on the graph. The results show that this method has predicted the real winner in all the elections held since 2004 and highlights that it is necessary to monitor the next elections for the presidency of the United States in November 2020 and to have more accurate information on the future results.Google Trends is a web tool that gives numeric and visual representations of the popularity of a term or topic searched on Google over a specific period and location relative only to the total number of searches. ![]() In this article, we have taken into account the past four elections in the United States and the past five in Canada, since Google first published its search statistics in 2004. To this end, we analysed which candidate had the most Google searches in the months leading up to the polling day. To demonstrate the predictive capacity of this method, we conducted the study for two countries: the United States of America and Canada. In this article, we propose a free method to anticipate the winner of the presidential election based on this approach. These preelection polls have a different predictive capacity, despite the fact that under a Big Data approach, sources that indicate voting intention can be found. 666-680 ISSN: 1552-3381 Subject: scientists, statistics, Canada Abstract: The media and election campaign managers conduct several polls in the days leading up to the presidential elections. Google Trends as a Predictor of Presidential Elections: The United States Versus Canada Author: Camilo Prado-Román, Raúl Gómez-Martínez, Carmen Orden-Cruz Source: American behavioral scientist 2021 v.65 no.4 pp. ![]()
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